Early Warning Systems Recommended for Middle Grades

Researchers say that many students have already made a decision to dropout before they ever walk in the high school doors. These students are just biding their time until they reach the legal age of 16 to drop out.One topic of conversation surrounding the dropout hearings that are taking place around the state has direct implications for middle school educators. Early warning systems that flag students before they drop out are being looked to as a way to keep more kids in school.

Researchers say that many students have already made a decision to dropout before they ever walk in the high school doors. These students are just biding their time until they reach the legal age of 16 to drop out.

Many educators are touting early warning systems that flag potential dropouts as early as sixth grade could go a long way in stemming the tide of high school dropouts. The systems flag these students in middle school and prompt the schools to begin immediate intervention steps to keep the student on track.

According to a report from the National High School Center, Approaches to Dropout Prevention: Heeding Early Warning Signs With Appropriate Interventions, to be most effective in preventing dropouts, school systems should focus dropout prevention efforts in the beginning of the middle grades.

The key indicators researchers have identified for students who are most likely to drop out are:

• poor grades in core subjects,
• low attendance,
• failure to be promoted to the next grade, and
• disengagement in the classroom, including behavioral problems

The report recommends that early warning systems be built around these researched recommendations that pertain to the middle level (I have pulled out the ones that pertain to the middle grades specifically):

1. Establish a data system that tracks individual student attendance, grades, promotion status, and engagement indicators, such as behavioral marks, as early as fourth grade.
2. Determine criteria for who is considered off-track for graduation and establish a continuum of appropriate interventions.
3. Monitor end-of-year grades. The end-of-year grades will provide further information about failure rates and reveal grade point averages, providing detailed information about who is likely to struggle in later years and is considered by some researchers to be the best indicator for predicting nongraduates (Allensworth and Easton, 2007). In general, grades tend to be a more accurate predictor of dropout than test scores.

Identifying Potential Dropouts: Key Lessons for Building an Early Warning Data System, a white paper by Achieve also highlights 6th grade risk factors that are a powerful prediction of dropping out in high school:
Four 6th grade risk factors proved to be powerful predictors of falling off the track to graduation —
• low attendance (80 percent or lower),
• a failing mark for classroom behavior,
• a failing grade in math,
• a failing grade in English

As the dropout problem in Michigan is examined more intensively, middle school educators can expect to hear more and more calls for early warning systems that spot and intervene for potential dropouts at the middle school level.